Risk Versus Reward with Caleb Williams
Building a thesis for the quarterback position by looking at two deep balls from Caleb Williams.
Being a southeast guy, I usually don’t watch west coast and Pac 12 games on principle, so I hadn’t seen a lot of Caleb Williams’ games the past two years. For this post I watched two games: Oregon and UCLA. One important QB trait that stood out about Caleb Williams was his understanding of risk versus reward.
Williams plays on the riskier side, and I think that’s a good thing. For the most part, he understood in these two games when to take risks and when not to. Often, he put the ball where it needed to go.
This post will go over two plays demonstrating this point as well as building a thesis for the job description of the quarterback position: to put the ball where it needs to go.
Not Connecting on the Deep Ball
There are many plays like this one where Williams doesn’t have something open in his reads, pressure comes to force him from the pocket, and he then launches a ball to a WR running down the field. This is just one example.
And here, like many of them, the ball doesn’t get to the WR.
But with that being the result, I still believe this is solid QB play because it demonstrates two things. First, he is keeping his eyes down the field while navigating a shaky pocket. Second, he doesn’t let the play die and gives the play a chance.
I’m not sure what the offensive concept is — it’s play action and I think it’s a double double move concept with the WR to the bottom is running a curl-and-go and the number two receiver to the field running an out-and-in. That would make the read the curl-and-go to the out-and-in, and this read would agree with Williams’ eyes going to the WR at the bottom of the screen first.
So now that that’s out of the way, let’s get to what to the point: this being a play showing Williams’ understanding of risk versus reward. Life and football are about understanding probabilities to put the odds in your favor. Call it finding an advantage in chance.
The QB position, one with so many decisions to be made, requires a rock-solid understanding of when to take a chance and when not to. In other words, knowing when and where to throw the ball to. On any given play there up to five receivers in the pattern. But depending on the look from the defense, not all will be available. Often, only one is.
Knowing or figuring out quickly which one that is consistently allows the QB to put the odds in the favor of the offense. This play is a demonstration of the QB seeing that and throwing the ball. So though the pass is incomplete, the principle of the decision is sound.
Connecting on the Deep Ball
An amazing showcase of athleticism is on display during this play, no doubt. But it’s the mind that jolts the arm into action to make the throw that I’m curious about.
The five man pressure squeezes the pocket, and with his eyes downfield, Williams’ run-up is the perfect reaction. The number one receiver at the top of the screen is running a go route, and the look any QB wants is at a minimum a one-on-one. So that’s the first part in analyzing the risk versus reward chances. If there is a one-on-one opportunity, there is a chance. The nearest threat is the safety who has his hips inside running with the crosser. Those inside hips eliminate him from being a serious and immediate threat to the go ball.
Other factors for the QB to consider include speed, leverage, and separation. But the situation requires little time and opportunity to consider these. Consider meant in two ways — first, there just isn’t the time as Williams is racing forward to beat the pressure; second, there aren’t really any other options for Williams other than running the ball. So this is the point where risk versus reward reveals itself. What is the risk of throwing the ball with air to that outside WR in a one-on-one matchup?
Williams’ understanding that it’s near zero makes the play viable by giving his WR a chance. Just like the last play. This one happens to work, however. But the odds were the same as last time, the difference being execution of the throw and catch.
The Thesis Summarized
Quarterbacks have much to do every play. And every play often only has one or two viable options for success. In this way, there aren’t a lot of choices the QB can make to make the play work. Finding success is a game of finding the highest probability for success, not a guarantee. Doing this over and over again, that is figuring out the highest probability of success, requires the QB to focus on what matters and then make a decision on those factors alone.
There is far too much happening on any given play outside the QB’s control. So finding those things that matter is of the upmost importance. Any good football play will attempt to give the QB as many high probability chances as possible. Such is the nature of RPOs. And while those are more obvious being a binary decision between choosing to run the ball or pass the ball, the passing game presents more opportunity for a more cloudy decision process for the QB. Hence why key defender reads and pure progression passing are the standard.
So breaking down these two plays from Caleb Williams concreted on my mind this idea of understanding the QB’s job as simply finding the highest probability of success. Said another way, the QB’s job is to put the ball where it needs to go.
Until tomorrow,
Emory Wilhite
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